In a recent segment, Fox News host Jesse Watters said that Democrats should not be spiking the football before the November elections. For all the talk of a ‘blue wave’ by their allies in the media, the numbers just don’t seem to indicate that result is a foregone conclusion. Watters points to the Real Clear Politics average which only shows a modest lead by Democrats.
Watters said, “I think he is trash talking here. He’s also making it about himself. It’s going to be a referendum on Donald Trump. He wants it that way. He is begging for it, he is egging the Democrats on. Not necessarily sure if I believe that when he goes in, he’s gonna fire up the right but I’m not so sure he’s not going to fire up the left. I think he is going to fire up the left. I agree with Dana. They have to turn out the vote hard and spend a lot of money. He’s going to spend 50 stops. Do you know how many stops that is? He’s going to be on TV all the time. In some districts, that’s really going to work because it’s going to raise money for people. It’s going to energize people. At the same time, he’s going to give the other side a lot of fodder. Right now I think the congressional generic ballot on the RealClearPolitics averages only about 4.8 percent. That does not indicate a blue wave at all. We are still in the territory of the Democrats picking up maybe 15 seats. That’s not enough to win back the House. Anything could happen. You could have the Mueller stuff come out. You could have a trade deal fall through or come through. There’s a lot of time between now and November.”
And let’s not forget how horribly biased and wrong pollseters were in 2016. Hillary Clinton was supposed to win in a landslide and we all know how that turned out. So unless these same pollsters fixed their operations overnight then you can count on them overestimating Democratic support. If they show theses races to be close then that probably puts Republicans even or maybe ahead.